A potent tropical wave located near the southeastern Caribbean is showing increasing signs of organization, prompting forecasters to issue alerts about a high probability of development into a tropical depression or storm within the week. The system, which was nearing the Windward Islands on Sunday, October 19, 2025, is expected to become more organized as it moves into the central or southern Caribbean by midweek.
Warm ocean waters and low wind shear conditions are creating an environment highly conducive to tropical cyclone development. AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva noted that atmospheric conditions are “primed for a storm to form in the Caribbean,” particularly as the region has seen minimal tropical activity so far in the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, leading to exceptionally warm waters.
Initial Impacts and Forecasted Path
The tropical wave began impacting the Windward Islands with heavy rain and gusty winds starting Sunday, October 19, 2025, and was projected to continue through Monday morning. The system was moving westward at approximately 20 mph, according to forecasts. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) initially placed the system’s chance of development at 30% in the next 48 hours and 70% in the next seven days, a notable increase from previous assessments.
Forecasters anticipate the system could organize further by midweek in the central or southern Caribbean. Bryan Norcross, a FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist, highlighted that while most historic storms in October tend to curve northward, this system’s trajectory and the warm waters in the western Caribbean make it a prime location for organization and strengthening if it develops. Computer models show diverging scenarios, with some predicting a rapid northward turn toward Puerto Rico and Hispaniola, while others suggest a slower movement and potential development into a hurricane within the Caribbean.
Potential for Significant Storm: Melissa
The next named storm on the Atlantic list would be Melissa. Some forecasts suggest that Melissa could become a significant threat, with models indicating potential for intensification into a hurricane. By October 22nd, Tropical Storm Melissa was steadily intensifying in the Caribbean, with conditions becoming increasingly favorable for rapid development into a major hurricane, potentially reaching Category 5 strength. By October 27th, Melissa was a dangerous Category 4 major hurricane, forecast to become Category 5 before making landfall in Jamaica. This system was projected to cause catastrophic flooding and high winds in Jamaica, followed by impacts to eastern Cuba and the southeastern Bahamas.
Broader Context: An Active 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season
The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season has been forecast to be an active one, with predictions pointing to well-above-average activity. Factors contributing to this outlook include warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures across the basin, especially in the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea, and the potential transition to La Niña conditions, which typically favor increased hurricane activity. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicted a 60% chance of an above-normal season, forecasting 13 to 19 named storms, 6 to 10 hurricanes, and 3 to 5 major hurricanes.
Historically, October can still be an active month for tropical cyclone development in the Caribbean, a region that has remained largely untouched by significant tropical activity this season. While the official hurricane season concludes on November 30th, conditions can still allow for storm formation and intensification late into the season.
Monitoring and Preparedness
Officials are urging residents and travelers in the Caribbean and Atlantic regions to stay updated on the evolving weather patterns. The National Hurricane Center provides regular updates, and forecasting agencies are closely monitoring the system’s progression. Communities in the potential path of any developing storm are advised to prepare accordingly, as even a single storm can have significant impacts. As of November 20, 2025, however, the National Hurricane Center indicated that tropical cyclone formation was not expected in the next seven days for the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of America, suggesting a quiet end to the season. This news report covers the potential threat as it was developing in late October 2025, highlighting the dynamic nature of tropical weather and the importance of ongoing vigilance during hurricane season.