As the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season approaches its official end on November 30, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) has issued its latest outlook, stating that no tropical cyclone formation is expected over the next seven days across the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico. This marks a quiet conclusion to a season that saw significant activity, including the catastrophic Hurricane Melissa.
This most recent assessment from the NHC on Friday, November 21, 2025, indicates that any recent signs of organization or potential development from a tropical wave have either dissipated or are no longer posing a threat. Earlier in the season, particularly in late October, meteorologists had been closely monitoring a tropical wave, often designated as Invest AL98 or Invest 98-L, for potential development within the Caribbean. This system had shown an increasing chance of organizing into a tropical depression or storm, with some forecasts giving it a 60-70% probability of development within a week. Forecasters had anticipated that this wave could bring heavy rainfall and gusty winds to parts of the Windward and Leeward Islands, and potentially impact Central America with increased moisture.
However, as the season draws to a close, environmental conditions have shifted, and the NHC’s current outlook reflects a lack of favorable conditions for tropical cyclogenesis. This is a common occurrence in the latter half of November as cooler sea surface temperatures and increasing wind shear typically limit storm formation.
The Lingering Shadow of Hurricane Melissa
While the immediate outlook is calm, the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season was far from uneventful. It was dominated by several powerful storms, most notably Hurricane Melissa. This extremely destructive Category 5 hurricane made landfall in Jamaica on October 28, 2025, as the strongest storm ever recorded to hit the island nation. Melissa brought catastrophic winds, torrential rainfall, and widespread flooding, causing immense devastation across Jamaica, Cuba, Haiti, and other parts of the Caribbean.
The impact of Hurricane Melissa has been profound, affecting millions of lives and leaving a significant humanitarian crisis in its wake. In Jamaica, over 122,000 dwellings were damaged or destroyed, along with critical infrastructure and crops. The storm’s passage led to power outages, blocked roadways, and deadly landslides, with thousands of people displaced and remaining in shelters for weeks. The hurricane’s intensity, tied to increasing ocean temperatures influenced by climate change, has been a stark reminder of the evolving nature of tropical cyclones.
The disruption to daily life and the long road to recovery for the affected communities highlight the vulnerability of the Caribbean region to these extreme weather events. UNICEF reported that nearly 477,000 children across Cuba, Haiti, and Jamaica experienced significant disruptions to their schooling due to damaged or closed educational facilities. The economic repercussions are also substantial, with estimated damages in Jamaica alone reaching billions of dollars.
A Season of Contrasts: Above-Average Potential, Mixed Reality
Pre-season forecasts for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season had predicted an above-average number of storms, with projections ranging from 13 to 19 named storms, including 6 to 10 hurricanes and 3 to 5 major hurricanes. This was attributed to factors such as anomalously warm Atlantic sea surface temperatures and anticipated neutral to La Niña conditions, which typically reduce wind shear and favor storm development. The season ultimately produced 13 named storms, five hurricanes, and four major hurricanes, with the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index—a measure of a storm season’s intensity and duration—being near normal, largely fueled by powerful storms like Melissa, Erin, Humberto, and Gabrielle.
Despite the overall active forecast, the continental United States experienced a relatively quiet season, with only one system, Tropical Storm Chantal, making landfall. For the Caribbean, however, the season was marked by the devastating impact of Hurricane Melissa, underscoring the region’s persistent exposure to severe tropical cyclones.
Preparing for the Future
As the 2025 hurricane season officially concludes, residents and authorities in the Caribbean continue to focus on recovery efforts and long-term preparedness. The ongoing threat of climate change and its influence on hurricane intensity remains a critical concern for the region’s lifestyle and resilience. Organizations like CARICOM have been working on building codes to withstand Category 5 hurricane winds, acknowledging the need for resilient infrastructure in the face of increasingly powerful storms. While the immediate threat of new tropical development has subsided for this season, the experiences of 2025 serve as a powerful reminder of the importance of vigilance, preparedness, and global action on climate change. This news serves as an update for all those living in or traveling to the Caribbean region, emphasizing the current safety from new tropical cyclone threats as the season draws to a close.