Caribbean Economic Divide Widens: Oil Surges While Tourism Faces Headwinds in 2026-2027
The Caribbean faces a significant economic divide in 2026 and 2027. Projections reveal a widening gap. This split separates resource-driven economies from those relying on tourism. News from major institutions highlights this trend. The UN Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) and the World Bank released new forecasts.
Guyana Leads Resource-Driven Growth
Guyana is the primary driver of this divergence. Its economy is booming due to oil expansion. ECLAC forecasts an average growth of 8.2% for the region in 2026. Much of this is thanks to Guyana. The World Bank projects 5.7% growth for the broader Caribbean. However, this figure drops sharply without Guyana.
Excluding Guyana, the growth rate falls to about 1.7%. Guyana’s GDP is set to surge by 15.7% in 2026. This growth is fueled by massive hydrocarbon investments. Guyana is projected to remain the fastest-growing economy in the Caribbean. This oil boom is transforming its economic landscape.
Tourism-Dependent Economies Face Slower Pace
In stark contrast, tourism-dependent nations face a different reality. The Bahamas anticipates only moderate growth. Its tourism sector shows stagnant performance. Jamaica’s economic outlook is more concerning. The country may even see contraction in early 2026.
Hurricane Melissa severely impacted Jamaica’s tourism and agriculture. The storm caused billions in agricultural losses. Crops, livestock, and infrastructure suffered extensive damage. The tourism sector also faced disruptions. Hotels closed. Infrastructure damage occurred. This highlights the vulnerability of these economies.
External Shocks Pose Major Risks
The entire Caribbean region faces significant risks. These come from external factors. Slower economic growth in the U.S. is a concern. Rising energy and transportation costs add pressure. High levels of public debt burden many nations. Climate-related risks are also increasing.
Natural disasters are a recurring threat. The region is highly exposed to these shocks. Global trade uncertainties add to the pressure. Commodity price volatility creates further instability. These factors make economic planning difficult.
The Call for Diversification and Resilience
Experts stress the urgent need for change. Economic diversification is critical. Nations must look beyond tourism. Expanding into new sectors is vital. These include energy, logistics, and digital services. Food security is another key area.
Building economic resilience is paramount. This means strengthening infrastructure. It also involves adapting to climate change. Governments must foster new business opportunities. Investment in human capital is essential.
Regional integration can also play a role. Strengthening trade ties is important. Collaboration helps create a more robust business environment. This strategy aims to secure a more stable future. It seeks to reduce dependence on volatile external markets. The news for the Caribbean shows a clear path divergence. Resource wealth drives growth for some. Others must adapt or fall behind.