The economic landscape of the Caribbean in September 2025 presents a complex mosaic of robust growth in select nations, particularly those benefiting from oil production, juxtaposed with persistent fiscal challenges and external debt concerns across many islands. While the region as a whole anticipates moderate economic expansion, driven largely by tourism and construction, significant headwinds and diverging national performances are shaping its near-term outlook.
Guyana’s Unprecedented Oil-Driven Growth
Guyana continues to stand out as the region’s economic powerhouse, propelled by its burgeoning oil sector. Projections for 2025 indicate exceptional GDP growth rates, with figures ranging from 10.6% to over 12.3%. This sustained boom is primarily fueled by offshore oil production, spearheaded by ExxonMobil. The Final Investment Decision (FID) for ExxonMobil’s seventh Stabroek block development, Hammerhead, was reached in September 2025, with production slated to commence in 2029. This project alone is expected to add approximately 150,000 barrels of oil per day, significantly contributing to Guyana’s economic surge and solidifying its role as a major global oil producer.
Navigating Fiscal Headwinds and Debt Concerns
A prevailing concern across many Caribbean nations is the high level of external debt, with several countries, including Barbados, Suriname, and Trinidad and Tobago, reporting debt that surpasses their foreign exchange reserves. Trinidad and Tobago (T&T) faces a particularly acute situation, with its external debt reaching record highs, reportedly TT$37.53 billion by November 2024. The government has outlined plans to increase borrowing substantially, by 78% in FY2026, to TT$19 billion, amidst accusations of fiscal mismanagement and underbudgeting by previous administrations.
The Bahamas, while experiencing economic growth, saw its fiscal deficit in the first quarter of FY2024/25 nearly triple to $185.4 million due to increased spending on infrastructure and debt servicing. Although official reports suggest an overall fiscal deficit of 0.5% of GDP for FY2024/25, indicating potential year-end consolidation, the quarterly figures highlight ongoing fiscal pressures. For the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU) members, public debt remains above 71% of GDP, with ambitious targets to reduce this to 60% by 2035 requiring significant fiscal consolidation efforts.
Bermuda’s Tax Reforms and Stable Business Environment
Bermuda is set to implement a new 15% Corporate Income Tax (CIT) regime from January 1, 2025. This tax will apply to multinational enterprise (MNE) groups with global revenues exceeding €750 million, aligning the jurisdiction with global tax initiatives such as Pillar Two. Despite these significant tax framework changes, Bermuda’s re/insurance sector continues to demonstrate resilience, maintaining stable credit ratings due to ample capital reserves [initial context, 20, 24]. This stability underscores the island’s continued appeal as an international financial center.
Divergent National Performance and Sectoral Trends
Beyond Guyana’s oil-driven boom, other Caribbean economies are experiencing more moderate growth. Tourism remains a critical engine for many, with stayover arrivals in several countries surpassing pre-pandemic levels. However, projections for 2025 suggest a regional growth rate of around 2.5% (excluding Guyana), a pace that, while steady, is tempered by factors such as a potential slowdown in the US economy and increased global trade tensions.
Barbados faces unique challenges, including a significant year-over-year increase in homicides and a high cost of living, even as its real growth showed improvement in 2024 [initial context]. The labor force participation rate has seen a decline, adding another layer to its economic dynamics [initial context, 20, 24]. Suriname is also navigating economic stability and diversification efforts, partly financed by a recent bond issuance for oil field development.
Outlook for Business and Trade
Regional trade is projected to see growth in goods exports by 5% in 2025, with imports rising slightly higher. China is anticipated to be the largest contributor to export value growth for the region. Amidst shifting global trade policies, there is an increased emphasis on strengthening regional integration and diversifying trade relations to mitigate external shocks and foster more dynamic business environments.
The September 2025 Caribbean economic report paints a picture of a region at a crossroads. While opportunities for growth, especially in the energy sector, are substantial, the pervasive issues of high debt, fiscal deficits, and the need for economic diversification remain critical areas requiring concerted policy attention. The resilience of the tourism sector and the strategic adjustments in financial hubs like Bermuda offer pathways forward, but the overarching success of the Caribbean economy will hinge on robust fiscal management and sustained efforts to build more diversified and resilient national economies.