Guyana’s economy has demonstrated exceptional resilience and dynamism, recording a substantial 7.5 percent growth in the first half of 2025. Crucially, the non-oil economy has emerged as a powerful engine of expansion, growing by an impressive 13.8 percent during the same period. This marks the fifth consecutive year of non-oil economic growth since 2020, signaling a sustained effort towards diversification and broad-based development.
Unprecedented Overall Growth
In the first six months of 2025, Guyana’s overall economy expanded by an estimated 7.5 percent. This robust performance has led economic forecasters to revise the full-year Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth projection upward to 15.2 percent, a significant increase from earlier estimates. This upward revision underscores the strength and momentum of economic activities across various sectors.
The Ascendance of the Non-Oil Economy
The non-oil sector’s growth of 13.8 percent in the first half of 2025 is particularly noteworthy. This expansion is the fifth successive year of growth for this segment, following a contraction in 2020. For the first time since oil production began in December 2019, the non-oil economy grew faster than the oil and gas sector in this period, highlighting the success of diversification strategies. The non-oil real GDP for the full year is now projected to reach 13.9 percent, further solidifying its increasing contribution to the national economy.
Sectoral Contributions to Growth
Several key sectors have been instrumental in driving this economic surge. The manufacturing sector experienced a remarkable 26.8 percent growth in the first half of the year, propelled by strong performance in subcategories such as rice, sugar, and other manufacturing activities. It is now projected to achieve an annual growth of 14.9 percent.
The services sector expanded by 6.6 percent, buoyed by robust activity in wholesale and retail trade, administrative services, financial and insurance activities, professional services, and information and communication technology. This sector is targeted for an overall 2025 growth of 8.6 percent.
The construction sector saw a significant leap of 29.9 percent growth in the first half of 2025. This expansion is attributed to a substantial Public Sector Investment Programme and strong private sector investments in infrastructure and real estate. The full-year projection for the construction sector stands at 26.2 percent.
In agriculture, fishing, and forestry, an estimated 9 percent growth was recorded in the first half of the year. The sugar industry, in particular, expanded by an impressive 136.7 percent in the first half, with rice growing by 13.9 percent. Livestock also showed a healthy expansion of 11.7 percent.
The extractive industries saw the petroleum subsector grow by 5.5 percent in the first half of 2025, producing 115.7 million barrels of oil, although lower oil prices tempered sector growth. However, the bauxite industry experienced substantial growth of 133.1 percent in the first half, with projections for 65.9 percent annual growth. Gold mining also contributed significantly with a 10.9 percent increase in the first half, supported by soaring gold prices.
Pillars of Expansion: Investment and Diversification
This broad-based economic success is underpinned by strategic government policies and substantial investment. The government’s commitment to fostering an investment climate is bearing fruit, with credit to the private sector growing by 7.7 percent in the first half of 2025. Investments outside the oil and gas sector have exceeded US$2.5 billion over the past four years, signaling strong investor confidence. The Public Sector Investment Programme continues to be a key driver, particularly in infrastructure development.
Guyana’s economic diversification strategy is central to its long-term vision. The nation aims to build resilience against global economic shocks by developing sectors beyond oil and gas, including agriculture, manufacturing, tourism, and ICT. The successful growth in non-oil sectors demonstrates that these diversification efforts are beginning to take root.
Outlook and Implications
Senior Finance Minister Dr. Ashni Singh and President Ali have reiterated the government’s commitment to sustaining high growth while maintaining fiscal discipline and safeguarding long-term stability. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects Guyana’s economy to grow at an average annual rate of 14 percent over the next five years, with non-oil GDP expected to grow around 6.75 percent annually. While inflation is projected to remain moderate, around 4 percent for 2025, the government remains vigilant.
The nation’s balance of payments recorded a surplus of US$10.3 million in the first half of 2025, with a current account surplus of US$197.9 million and a merchandise trade balance surplus of US$3,180.2 million. Non-oil export earnings increased by 12.5 percent, driven by gold and bauxite.
As Guyana continues its economic transformation, its performance positions it as a leading economy within the Caribbean and Latin America, offering valuable lessons and opportunities for business and investment within the region and beyond. The ongoing development underscores Guyana’s potential to become a diversified logistics and knowledge hub, shifting from a commodity-dependent economy to one of steady, resilient growth.